Part 1: Domestic vaccine passes & how they came to be

Officials began considering their use in New Zealand in mid-2021 and went against Ministry of Health advice

Work had been underway since the very end of 2020 to consider how an international travel certificate would work if required. Initially led by the Ministry of Transport who convened a Multi‐Agency Travel Pass forum with the Ministry of Health to progress it.

There was no formal discussion of domestic vaccine passes per se in documents - it was mostly concerned with certificates for travel. Any work that was being done had a decidedly unhurried tone to it - likely due to the late vaccine rollout in New Zealand - but the Ministry of Health did have 8 staffers involved in April 2021 to progress it.

The first explicit mention I could find to domestic vaccine passes was in this OIA release which has a 17th of May 2020 memo to the Covid-19 Vaccine and Immunisation Steering Group. It noted that a position on domestic vaccine passes would need to be developed at some point. It also clearly stated the use of these was under an “assumption” being vaccinated reduces the risk of spreading the virus. These assumptions “underpinned the elimination strategy and the Reconnecting New Zealand” work - which I’m going to discuss first as its central to understanding the emergence of domestic vaccine passes.

On the 5th of July a Cabinet paper and minute called Reconnecting New Zealand was discussed. It reads like the first attempt at a fantasy novel that should never have seen the light of day.

It explicitly references that vaccination made the elimination strategy more “feasible”.

It also stated “.. .our ability to stamp out COVID-19 will partly depend on the level of vaccination coverage achieved, including across regions and population groups levels of vaccination here and overseas are unlikely to cross a 'herd immunity' threshold.” That sentence confuses me but it went on to say further down “…it is nonetheless vital to achieve the highest possible vaccination coverage across the population”. And noted travellers will need vaccine certificates and test and contact tracing will be required. As well as “…greater vigilance will also be essential throughout New Zealand.”

The paper assumed the elimination strategy of Covid zero would be continued once vaccination was widely available and the sole reference to vaccination certificates was in allowing New Zealanders to travel overseas. It did not discuss domestic use within New Zealand.

A 30th of July 2021 memo on proof of vaccination in the context of travel to then Covid-19 Minister Chris Hipkins noted the the effects of vaccines affecting transmission was still under review. “…evidence on the magnitude of the reduction in transmissibility is still emerging.” It went on to state “…once vaccinated, approximately <0.5% of Pfizer vaccinated individuals become infected (‘breakthrough’ infections). While it is possible for these individuals to infect others, the rate at which a vaccinated infected person can transmit the virus is unknown.”

This appears to be Hipkins on signing of the briefing (no laughing emoji?):

The previous OIA release has an internal Ministry of Health 17th of August memo primarily about international travel but also makes mention of domestic use “The rationale for these requirements appears to be in part to manage the potential for transmission and also to incentivise vaccination.”

And that the Ministry “…..will be undertaking policy work to explore the ethical, legal, equity and public health considerations regarding domestic use of vaccination certificates.”

This above 17th of August memo was sent on directly to Covid Ministers on the 26th of August, repackaged from the policy analyst who wrote it to be from the head of the Covid vaccination program Jo Gibbs.

A month later on the 17th of September this joint briefing from DPMC and the Minisitry of Health on the use of domestic vaccine passes was delivered to the Covid-19 Minister Hipkins and copied to the Prime Minister on the use of domestic vaccine passes.

This briefing is the 1 where official advice on domestic vaccine passes for only events was ignored:

I suspect this is only the first mention of how domestic vaccine passes could be used - but it wasn’t explicitly agreed to by Cabinet yet as documents up to the decisive October Cabinet paper agreeing to their usage still referred to domestic vaccine passes and events. I’ll go into this in part 2.

Equity was a large concern and the paper delved into the issue that Māori were less likely to be vaccinated than other groups but could suffer more harm from Covid-19 infection. Much of the document - like most I’ve reviewed - concerns itself with looking at what other countries are doing. Although domestic passes had been rolled out in several countries - by the time this paper was written some countries had stopped or paused their use it noted.

A DPMC OIA released on the 21st of September 2021 asked for more information based on a 10th of September press conference where the Minister of Finance was asked if there were any plans for a domestic certificate - he responded conversations were underway. The OIA response implied no work was being done “…no decisions have been taken to implement vaccine requirements at events or gatherings, there are currently no plan to implement this.”

Well DPMC….as I’ve shown…you chose your truth I guess right?

On the 22nd of September a memo on the progress of the travel certificate noted “Separate advice is being prepared for the Minister for COVID-19 Response and the Prime Minister on how vaccination certificates for domestic use cases could be issued.” It adds “Should Ministers direct it, the same feature on My COVID Record could support generating certificates for domestic use, where people can prove their vaccination status, for example to access large events.” It noted that this would increase costs and the Ministry was reviewing it.

On the 24th of September a joint briefing from DPMC and the Ministry of Health had been given on their usage in high risk settings to Covid-19 Minister Hipkins and the Prime Minister. It was still concerned with limiting their use to events (noted as above 1000 people), ensuring essential services were prohibited from requiring them and providing advice for use in other potential settings.

It also clearly noted that over time “…this measure may no longer be justifiable as vaccination rates increase.”

This is an odd statement - the general population rollout hadn’t been going long but was going okay it seemed in the stats. Was it to nudge vaccination or to stop transmission?

Surely it’s also odd as DPMC and the Ministry of Health appear to have been directed to look into a domestic pass in July and August and we can start to see the documents gathering pace from the 5th of July Reconnecting New Zealand Cabinet paper. This was well in advance of the ability for many people to get vaccinated. They wouldn’t have had general population vaccination rates to base usage on if they had started in July - they would only, again be relying on vaccination intent research. The copious vaccine tracker surveys by Ipsos, Horizon, Moana Research, Pacific Perspectives and TRA among others that showed attitudes of younger and Māori people were far less likely to feel the need to get vaccinated.

The day previous to this joint briefing - the Assistant Privacy Commissioner gave feedback.

Privacy and scope creep concerns

An OIA also contains an email from the Assistant Privacy Commissioner, Liz MacPherson on the 23rd of September 2021 to a large all of government group on the use of the domestic vaccine pass. This was a fun find in the OIA as their advice has been hard to find because the Covid legislation over rides the provisions in the Privacy Act. They can’t investigate complaints due that and they also refused direct OIA’s on their advice and vaccine passes.

In the email MacPherson noted the pass was for high risk venues/setting and would exclude basic human needs providers like pharmacies and supermarkets. The ability to allow it at other places at their discretion raised a lot of issues and she recommended the government draw a clear line stating when the pass can be used.

It went on to discuss the problems with vaccination information and employers knowing that information based on the public health rationale did not seem strong and that it could lead to issues like businesses promoting themselves as fully vaccinated (using what had been private medical information). Which is also exactly what happened by the way.

MacPherson also pushed back on the Ministry of Health minimum data to display as being intrusive health information - they only needed an authorisation to enter not details of the date of 2nd dose or test result details.

Ah tests. This was an interesting mention and another email from within an OIA from the Ministry of Health confirmed that on the 23rd of September they were still gently considering the use of test results - whether it was in conjunction with vaccination (which happened in some countries - for instance in Cyprus even if vaccinated you had to take regular test) or in lieu of vaccination wasn’t clearly stated.

The Assistant Privacy Commissioner also noted worries about scope creep in the use of the domestic vaccine passes:

Scope creep was also 1 of the key concerns the New Zealand Civil Liberties Union had and they referenced a UK Ada Lovelace report on this issue.

Scope creep has now been confirmed by the large health project HIRA - in a project update they specifically credit the passes with how they were able to move forward.

Finalising their usage

Another Cabinet paper Strategy for a highly vaccinated New Zealand dated the 27th of September 2021 discussed vaccine certificates and the change from Alert Levels with lockdowns to the traffic light setting. This paper is also why this post is in 2 parts as I wanted to go in depth into it as it was a key element in domestic vaccine passes.

The paper repeatedly relied on rhetoric and modelling to show the more vaccinated the less spread and still included contact tracing and testing at any level to control outbreaks. “For instance, modelling suggests that the risk of transmission will be meaningfully reduced at 80% coverage for the eligible population, and will be further reduced if we can achieve coverage as high as 90%. Benefits will be greater still if eligibility for vaccination is ultimately extended to younger age groups.”

Modelling.

Here is an actual count - roughly a year after this statement was made, so by September 2022, with a variety of restrictions and changes and yes, New Zealand was 1 of the most highly vaccinated and boosted countries in the world - there was over 1.7 million reported cases (which was likely a large under counting of actual cases).

This mirrored other country’s experience - despite vaccination rates (some very high like Malta) - infection waves continued.

I make that point as a lot of the rhetoric relied on the mistaken and faulty belief that the vaccines stopped transmission.

But even if you hadn’t read the clinical trial data Pfizer provided or looked overseas we know from releases from Medsafe discussions - it was not very effective at stopping transmission (and the increases some studies showed - also showed all the effects rapidly wanted). The 1st boosters were launched in Israel - not based on data (there was none at that point) but political desperation to combat another large wave of infections - yet Israel had implemented a green pass their version of a domestic vaccine certificate in March 2021.

Okay lets get back to the paper.

The paper is preoccupied with high vaccination meaning that cases are lowered, outbreaks are aggressively managed and caught within the border where possible and that contact tracing and testing would be maintained and would be the work horses to ‘manage’ the work to reduce transmission. “By vaccinating, aggressively isolating, and controlling the virus through our new framework, we will reduce the frequency, size and speed of outbreaks. An individual case will no longer be an immediate public health emergency and stamping out new outbreaks will be easier than it is today…”

It assumed that if hosptalisations occurred it would be made up of the unvaccinated “…we are ensuring we are prepared for an inevitable rise in hospitalisation of people who remain unvaccinated, and in some cases, vaccinated people who become severely ill.”

Some cases!

It also said “…with about 90% effectiveness against serious illness and 70% against infection, they [the Covid vaccines] will be more effective than the flu vaccines but less likely to be able to provide herd immunity in the way measles vaccines do.“

Lets review that statement. 2 doses of the standard MMR vaccination for measles provides 99.5% effectiveness (1 dose is roughly 95%) against transmission. In fact a quick search shows the very 1st person who was found to have contracted measles after being double vaccinated with the MMR vaccine was in 2011.

It also discussed extending the use of vaccines to the over 5s as it would “…improve the transmission reduction attributable to the vaccination campaign…”. At the date of writing this in early 2023 - less than 30% of 5 to 12 years old are fully vaccinated.

This meant nationwide lockdowns would end in favor of targeted closures (of schools and workplaces) to enable more stability. The September paper also in this context explicitly called out the vaccine passes work under way at the Ministry of Health and “…there will be advice on domestic vaccine certificates.”

It goes on to also note equity considerations that Māori and Pacific communities had borne the brunt of the recent Delta outbreak and associated lockdowns in late 2021 in Auckland and Northland and they would also be impacted by the use of domestic vaccine certificates as they had lower vaccination uptake (particularly in regards to having more younger people as well).

It’s curious they were concerned with equity yet admitting the group they were most concerned about - would be the group most adversely affected by domestic vaccine passes. It also mentions if domestic passes were approved they will release details to the public in early October. Another nudge action.

In the next part I’ll go into more OIAs that show how the vaccine pass was developed at pace and and confusion over their intended use.