The homogeneity of expert opinion
Despite more nuance in the origins space - a key player in science reporting, the Science Media Center, maintains the origin of Covid is settled - it's from a bat.
New Zealand always seemed uniquely uninterested in the origins of Covid to me.
Despite that earlier this year, when it got out US federal agencies concluded a lab leak could be the origin of Covid, a few stories from wire services did appear in local media.
Yet the nuance, that the lab leak could be possible, came alongside opinion pieces from literature professors comparing the lab leak theory to middle ages style magical thinking.
Last week an investigation by Public claimed to further the theory, by identifying the first people with Covid in 2019 were 3 research scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
While I wouldn’t expect it to be noticed by the media here, it again reminded me of head of Meta, Mark Zuckerburg recently saying that experts shouldn’t have been so quick to claim they knew what they did not know.
He added that meant they censored information that was true, which lead to undermining trust. The cratering of trust in the media has been tracked in New Zealand - falling to 42% in the latest 2023 survey.
Which brings me to the Science Media Center.
Set up by journalist Peter Griffin in 2008, it was designed to improve scientific understanding and associated reporting. There is a network of similar centers around the world.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) are the primary funders of the independent, not-for-profit Science Media Center (SMC). Any shortfall in funding is topped up by their host, the Royal Society of New Zealand.
The SMC is funded for 4 staff, including 3 media advisors, to support the traditional media (their words) with scientific advice. And basically provide quotes to lazy journalists (my words).
I knew about the SMC but never particularly noticed it until I started this Substack and started reading for context past media articles. I’ve come across several articles by different news organisations that had the same small group of experts saying the same quote. And then realised, ah it’s because they copy and paste from the SMC.
When isolation rules for Covid were kept earlier this year - the experts uniformly agreed that it is a Good Thing. And a look through their Covid support to journalists show mostly homogenous opinions agreeing with government Covid restrictions and decisions, sometimes requesting more.
All their expert opinions on the 90% vaccination target agreed with modelling that it was another Good Thing. There’s no evidence in their quotes they actually reviewed the problematic modelling that I showed cropped up for political reasons, based on no underlying public health rationale.
Try and get a group of adults to agree on where to eat for dinner - it’s an exercise in futility.
So when I see a group of adults consistently agree, which happens to coincide with government advice and directives, with zero nuance to it - I think something is up and it’s reflected in trust declining.
On Covid origins, SMC still implies Covid could only come directly from bats:
A MartinJenkins evaluation in December 2020 on the Science Media Center interviewed 40 stakeholders who called the SMC vital to combat rising misinformation and called on it to do much more in that space.
In line with that, SMC have hosted briefings to the media on Covid mis/disinformation - featuring Kate Hannah of The Disinformation Project. In June 2022, Kate Hannah spoke directly to MPs at parliament on the same issue at a special forum hosted by the SMC’s home, the Royal Society.
Sponsored by a key mis/disinformation player I’ve covered, Tohatoha Aotearoa Commons, the latest SMC briefing from mid-June, is by a visiting expert from the Harvard Kennedy School.
(If the Harvard Kennedy School seems familiar - that’s where former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has 2 fellowships, to continue her work on the government funded Christchurch Call outputs.)
Covering disinformation in disguise and how it can be spread by science (naughty science!), the briefing concentrates on examples of theories on the origins of Covid.
The briefing also discussed their open support for the current government proposal to regulate content, including standards appeared higher prior to the arrival of social media which is governed mostly by US law and, “…in the absence of regulation, technology is policy by default.” It was suggested New Zealand could be a world leader, whose potential content moderation regulation could be copied by other countries.
Missed the background? Read more I’ve covered about mis/disinformation.